导读kaiyun官方网站

连年来，全球财政计策面对前所未有的挑战。快速攀升的宇宙债务、结构性改良的进击需求，以及日益严峻的神情变化，条目列国重新扫视其计策场所。

改过冠疫情以来，列国为粗俗宇宙卫生危急及供应链中断，不断扩大财政赤字，全球债务水平捏续攀升。截止2023年，宇宙债务已占全球GDP的93%，预测到2030年将接近100%。好意思国和中国等主要经济体的债务增长更是远超疫情前水平。尽管欧洲债务趋于牢固，但其职责仍远高于历史水平。

刻下经济环境与往时比拟已发生真切变化。永远宽松的财政计策正在推高国债风险溢价，增多假贷成本。举例，好意思国因财政赤字扩大，永远国债收益率权贵上涨，并通过金融阛阓对其他经济体产生溢出效应。而高债务水平带来的经济风陡立难低估。最初， 政事辅助正渐渐偏向扩大政府支拨，而削减赤字或戒指支拨的声息日益式微。这种趋势进步党派不对，加重归赵务风险。其次，全球性挑战进一步推高了财政需求。从神情变化到东谈主口老龄化，再到地缘政事激勉的防务支拨，政府财政压力空前加重。据忖度，到2030年，全球粗俗此类问题的支拨将占GDP的7-8%，欧洲的干系支拨则每年高达5500亿至1.1万亿欧元。

面对这些挑战，列国需要“增长、看守和公众”三管王人下。第一，通过栽植分娩率和刺激革命，推动经济增长是处置债务问题的中枢。举例，欧盟可通过深化单一阛阓、摒除交易壁垒、鼓吹老本阛阓和银行业一体化，开释更多经济后劲。 第二，成就中期财政轨则和孤独财政委员会，提供透明和问责机制，确保财政范例的落实与现实。 第三，应加强公众参与和计策疏导。有用的信息传播与公众教师简略减少扭曲，提高对复杂计策的辅助度。

综上，全球财政计策的转型已刻阻难缓。通过增长、看守和公众三位一体的策略，列国应冉冉提高财政可捏续性和社会罗致度，为畴昔更牢固的经济环境奠定基础。

英文原文（节选）：

A Strategic Pivot in Global Fiscal Policy

Speech by IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath at the Central Bank of Ireland’s WhitakerLecture, Dublin

September 18, 2024

Global public debt has grown sizably over the last few years as governments tackled pandemics and energy and food insecurity. Public debt reached 93 percent of GDP in 2023 and is projected to approach 100 percent of GDP by the end of this decade. Debt in some of the largest economies like the US and China is projected to grow even faster than in the pre-pandemic years. Although public debt in Europe is expected to broadly stabilize, debt remains well-above pre-pandemic levels.

With monetary policy easing and unemployment at low levels in several countries, now is the time for a strategic pivot in fiscal policy. Such a pivot begins with a recognition of the true scale of fiscal risks: It is worse than you think. This calls for further recognizing that the economic consequences of high debt can no longer be dismissed in advanced economies. Borrowing costs and economic activity are increasingly impacted by loose fiscal policy. Lastly, for any fiscal strategy to succeed, economically and politically, it will need to focus on growth, guardrails, and grassroots.

Scale of Fiscal Risks

First, let’s look at the true scale of fiscal risks. There are several upside risks here.

To start with, there has been a significant change in the political economy environment. New IMF research documents that over the last few decades the political discourse on fiscal issues has become increasingly favorable to higher government spending. Political manifestos (or platforms) have a growing share of statements favoring public spending.

At the same time, restraint discourse – the share of a political manifesto calling for an outright reduction of budget deficits or the limitation of public spending – has declined across the board over time. Moreover, political redlines on raising taxes are becoming more entrenched. This is the case both for advanced economies and for emerging and developing economies. This is the case regardless of party ideologies – left or right. This pro-expansion trend creates significant upside risks for the debt outlook. While now is a good time to reduce deficits in several countries, governments instead may choose to kick the can down the road.

In addition to political shifts, there are big structural shifts that call for greater government spending. Countries will need to spend more on climate mitigation and adaptation, on healthcare and on pensions as populations age, and on defense needs as geopolitical tensions rise.

This new spending could amount to 7-8 percent of GDP annually on average for the global economy by 2030. For Europe this would add up to 2.5-5 percent of GDP, that is 550 billion to 1.1 trillion euros by 2030. These spending pressures may not be fully accounted for in baseline debt projections and are therefore likely to amplify upside risks to the debt outlook.

Finally, experience confirms there is an optimism bias in debt projections. Analysis covering the period between 1990 and 2021 shows that realized debt-to-GDP ratios in many countries tend to be significantly higher than projected over the medium-term. The two main reasons for this are optimistic growth projections – crises and pandemics are unforecastable --and realized fiscal adjustments that fall far short of plans. This bias can be seen in Europe, with outcomes exceeding forecasts significantly over a 5-year horizon. If history were to repeat itself, debt could rise by 8-11 percentage points of GDP above the baseline projections in European economies by 2030.

Let me conclude. Political and structural trends are increasingly pressuring governments to spend more and borrow more. If history is any guide, the trajectory of debt will be worse than any of us project today, and considerably so. This is not sustainable, and we need to strategically pivot.

Countries, especially those where output is close to potential, like the US and most in Europe, need to start now on a path of gradual fiscal consolidation. The strategy with the greatest chance of success should focus on growth; have effective guardrails to ensure compliance; and foster close engagement with all stakeholders, including civil society, to ensure their buy-in.

（本文不雅点仅供了解外洋讨论动态，不代表平台的倡导和态度。）

原文

着手

作家：

吉塔·戈皮纳特，国际货币基金组织第一副总裁

着手：

国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund，IMF）

编译：浦榕

监制：崔洁、李婧怡

版面剪辑｜王浩

职责剪辑｜李锦璇、阎奕舟

主编｜朱霜霜 kaiyun官方网站